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MCU poker tip: Don’t bluff too often in loose games

Obviously, opponents call too much in loose games, otherwise these wouldn’t be loose games. The main mistake opponents make in these games is to call too often.

You should expect their key mistake of calling too frequently to hurt you when you try to bluff. When you bluff, clearly you don’t want to be called. But in loose games you should expect to be.

Sure, everyone knows that, but you’d be surprised how many serious players bump their heads against poker’s wall by trying to bluff anyway. And, actually, it isn’t just the loosest games in which indiscriminate bluffing fails. It pretty much fizzles in most games, because typical opponents also call too often.

Situations

Does this mean you should never bluff? Of course not! But you need to choose rare situations where evidence strongly suggests that a bluff can yield long-range profit, if you attempted it over and over thousands of times. Otherwise — without strong evidence that a bluff will make money — simply don’t try to buy pots.

The secret is to never bluff in loose games unless you have a specific reason on a particular hand against a particular player. In tighter games, you can bluff once in a while at random, but in loose games and in most typical games, you must resolve never to bluff without a major motive.

All lose

The sad fact is that almost all players lose money for their poker lifetimes trying to bluff. So, if you did decide never to do it, you’d fare better than by bluffing at whim. Think about it. — MC

“Bad Chief G!” I shouted at the poor stupid dog
Odds, POKER, Tests
Blackjack and poker have slow rolls in common
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Brunson: No-Limit Confusion
Calculation, Entries by others, Hold 'em, Manipulation
Brunson: The size of a poker game
Entries by others, Odds
Caro’s analysis of Irish
Hold 'em, Odds, POKER, Strategy
Costly poker perceptions
Odds, POKER, Psychology, Tells
Does “running it twice” help or hurt your odds in poker?
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Fast 2014-09-19: “Poker Probe +” (testers wanted)
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Fearless predictions from the Mad Genius Brain Trust
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For Jan Bowman: The theory of betting and calling
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FSI — My easy poker profit monitor
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Index: Poker statistics
Statistics
Lies told about psychology in poker
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MCU poker odds: razz (7-low) improvement
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MCU poker tip: Poker’s mathematical myth
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Mike Caro

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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

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  1. What about in situations where you have a medium strong-ish hand and one opponent will pay you off if you bet into him but you’d have to bluff through an unknown opponent to get to him? Would you avoid betting or go right through them to get to the guy that’s calling too often?

    Jonathan

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