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Gambling tip: Easy way to know if you can win


Note: Not at the old Poker1 site.


The main consideration in determining whether a particular form of gambling can be beat is: “Do my decisions really matter?”

If the odds are against you and you can’t make meaningful decisions that will improve those odds, you can’t win. This is why no statistical analysis can give you an edge in craps or roulette. There are no magic betting systems.

Remember, meaningful decisions are intelligent ones. They are decisions based on provable science. One choice must be clearly better than another for reasons that make sense. We’re not talking about whim, intuition, or observed short-term trends. We’re talking about the type of decisions that can be logically explained.

Logic

If your decisions cannot be logically explained, then they are not meaningful. They are just guesses, just hunches. And guesses and hunches can’t overcome the odds against you.

Sure, after the fact in roulette, you might see that you would have won by betting red instead of black, but you had no reason to make a meaningful decision beforehand. Before you made a bet on red or black, there was no logical reason to favor one over another. Therefore, if the odds are against you to begin with — as they are in most casino games — you can’t make winning decisions, simply because those decisions don’t matter.

In games like poker and blackjack, your decisions do matter, and so these games can be beaten through expert play. It matters whether you decide to play a hand or fold it in poker. It matters whether you hit 18 or not in blackjack. The fact that those decisions change the odds, either favorably or unfavorably, opens up the potential for winning by making quality decisions.

The easy way

So, the easy way to determine whether any form of gambling potentially can be beat is to ask yourself: “Do my decisions really matter?” If the answer is no, the odds must be in your favor to begin with — and that usually isn’t going to happen unless you’re the casino.

Now, it may be that your decisions matter, but not enough to overcome the odds against you. So, not every form of gambling in which your decisions matter can be beat.

But, you will only have a chance to control your own odds in games where your decisions count. That’s why I teach: “In order to overcome any odds against you in gambling, your decisions must really matter.” Think about it.

— Mike Caro (telling the truth about gambling)

A win that inspires me (Caro blog)
ALL (newest first), AUDIO AND VIDEO, BLOG, Gambling, Video
Acting between opponents (1-minute audio)
Audio, AUDIO AND VIDEO, POKER, Strategy
All-in with big slick (1-minute audio)
Audio, AUDIO AND VIDEO, Hold 'em, POKER
Fast 2014-09-16: Murder of contemporary music
ADDED FAST, ALL (newest first), AUDIO AND VIDEO, Controversy, Life, Thoughts, Video
Fast 2017-03-13: Poker1 video works in all browsers
Videos at Poker1 have been converted from Flash to formats that work on every browser.
ADDED FAST, ALL (newest first), AUDIO AND VIDEO, SPECIAL INFO, Video
One way poker winners go broke (1-minute audio)
Audio, AUDIO AND VIDEO, Bankroll, POKER
Poker audio: Avoiding disaster with Occam’s Razor
Audio, AUDIO AND VIDEO, General, Hold 'em
Poker audio: Caro’s Law of Loose Wiring
Audio, AUDIO AND VIDEO, General, Psychology
Poker audio: Making poker bullies behave
ALL (newest first), Audio, AUDIO AND VIDEO, General
Poker audio: Your introduction to Badugi
ALL (newest first), Audio, AUDIO AND VIDEO, POKER
Poker tell video: Betting flair
AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video
Poker tell video: Blowing smoke
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Poker tell video: Breathing dangerously
AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video
Poker tell video: Buy-in
ALL (newest first), AUDIO AND VIDEO, Video
Poker tell video: Caro’s Great Law of Tells
AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video
Poker tell video: Cover up
ALL (newest first), AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video
Poker tell video: Dangerous bet
ALL (newest first), AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video
Poker tell video: Disgusted wager
AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video
Poker tell video: Double-check
AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video
Poker tell video: Fill up and fool
AUDIO AND VIDEO, Tells, Video

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Published by

Mike Caro

Visit Mike on   → Twitter   ♠ OR ♠    → FaceBook

Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

4 thoughts on “Gambling tip: Easy way to know if you can win”

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    1. Also, you should stop commenting when you are 80% likely to say something like that! (Please pass along to catter — see, I know.)

  1. Playing different varieties of casino games do not let you stuck with the same variety of games again and again. Hence, you won’t feel bored in the online casinos. Few of the casino games that you can play in the online casinos are poker, black jack, roulette, slots and bingo.

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