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MCU poker tip: Beware of bunched aces in hold ’em

I call this the “bunching factor.” It has nothing to do with poor dealing, though.

If you’re playing 10-handed hold ’em and the first seven players have folded before the flop, there’s a better-than-usual chance that the few remaining players hold aces. Why? It’s because when opponents fold, it’s more likely that they folded something other than aces.

More aces left

This means that statistically there are more aces left that could appear in the few remaining hands. This isn’t an overwhelming statistical factor. But it’s significant enough that you should be more selective about the hands you raise the blinds with from the button (dealer position) when everyone else has folded than you would be if the deal began three-handed!

This “bunching factor” applies to other high ranks, not just aces, although the effect is more diluted. It’s also applicable to other forms of poker, such as five-card draw. — MC

“Mad Genius” ego damage and the nature of poker
Biographical, Image, Motivation, Psychology
About Mike Caro
Biographical, Mike Caro, Press package, SPECIAL INFO
About the Mike Caro Brain Trust
Biographical, Brain Trust, Mike Caro, Press package, SPECIAL INFO
Brain Trust: Hillary president chances 2016
Brain Trust, Thoughts
Caro quote: … old-poker gun
ALL (newest first), POKER, Quotes, Strategy
Decades later, poker history repeats itself
General, History, Hold 'em, In the news, SPOTLIGHT
Eye surgeries delay P1 opening 12 days (Caro blog)
BLOG, Life, Personal
Fast 2014-09-16: Murder of contemporary music
ADDED FAST, ALL (newest first), AUDIO AND VIDEO, Controversy, Life, Thoughts, Video
Fast 2014-11-04: Strange slogan at my polling place
ADDED FAST, ALL (newest first), Life, Thoughts
Hold ’em flop bluff using scare cards
This common hold ’em opportunity to bluff profitably on the flop is often overlooked.
ALL (newest first), Hold 'em, In the news, Links, POKER, Poker sites, Strategy
I used to be mentally retarded (Caro blog)
BLOG, Life, Personal, Psychology
I wake up with 311-point Scrabble word (Caro blog)
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Mad Genius ego damage at poker (original version)
Bankroll, Motivation, Personal
Mike Caro Brain Trust methodology
Brain Trust, Press package, SPECIAL INFO
Mike Caro complete biography
ALL (newest first), Biographical, SPECIAL INFO
Mike Caro University: mascot, affiliation, Instagram
ALL (newest first), Announce, In the news, Links, News, Poker sites
More things I’ve never, sometimes, and always done
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My hippie photo that scared advertisers (Caro blog)
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My quotation isn’t cute
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My streak ends + Poker1 status update (Caro blog)
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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

2 thoughts on “MCU poker tip: Beware of bunched aces in hold ’em”

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  1. I always thought maybe my hand has less value if I have say AK in a tight game and all of a sudden there are lots of limpers. They likely have my outs vs everyone folding to me. Make sense?

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