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MCU poker tip: Beware of bunched aces in hold ’em

I call this the “bunching factor.” It has nothing to do with poor dealing, though.

If you’re playing 10-handed hold ’em and the first seven players have folded before the flop, there’s a better-than-usual chance that the few remaining players hold aces. Why? It’s because when opponents fold, it’s more likely that they folded something other than aces.

More aces left

This means that statistically there are more aces left that could appear in the few remaining hands. This isn’t an overwhelming statistical factor. But it’s significant enough that you should be more selective about the hands you raise the blinds with from the button (dealer position) when everyone else has folded than you would be if the deal began three-handed!

This “bunching factor” applies to other high ranks, not just aces, although the effect is more diluted. It’s also applicable to other forms of poker, such as five-card draw. — MC

“Mad Genius” ego damage and the nature of poker
Biographical, Image, Motivation, Psychology
Book (Caro on Gambling) 01. Plodders
Bankroll, Gambling, Image, Motivation
Book (Caro on Gambling) 02. God of Irony
Gambling, Motivation, POKER
Book (Caro on Gambling) 03. Winning attitude
Gambling, Motivation
Brunson: A state of mind
Entries by others, Motivation, Other games
Brunson: Don’t let weak opponents escape
Entries by others, Manipulation, Motivation, Tournaments
Brunson: Feeling good in the morning
Entries by others, General, Motivation
Brunson: Final
Entries by others, General, Motivation, Psychology
Brunson: Human kindness
Entries by others, General, Motivation
Brunson: Letting opponents tie their own nooses
Entries by others, General, Image, Manipulation, Motivation, Strategy
Brunson: Poker and superstition
Entries by others, Motivation
Brunson: Preparing to win
Entries by others, General, Motivation
Brunson: The road game route to profit
Entries by others, Motivation
Brunson: We appreciate recreational players
Entries by others, General, Motivation
Brunson: Who shouldn’t play poker?
Entries by others, Motivation
Brunson: Women in poker
Entries by others, General, Motivation
Caro’s Peak Poker Theory explained
ALL (newest first), Bankroll, Motivation, POKER, Psychology
Do you really want to play poker full time?
Bankroll, Motivation, Tournaments
Exploring even more of poker’s hidden concepts
Manipulation, Motivation, POKER
Exploring poker’s most profitable hidden concepts
Motivation, POKER, Strategy
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Mike Caro

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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

2 thoughts on “MCU poker tip: Beware of bunched aces in hold ’em”

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  1. I always thought maybe my hand has less value if I have say AK in a tight game and all of a sudden there are lots of limpers. They likely have my outs vs everyone folding to me. Make sense?

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