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Poker odds 03: 5-draw + joker, one-card chances

Note: All odds tables at Poker1.com were personally calculated by Mike Caro, unless otherwise specified. Many were done in the early 1970s and included in the original Doyle Brunson Super/System — A Course in Power Poker, first published in 1978.

At the time of publication, there were few, if any, reliable sources for poker odds. The 50 often-cited tables stood the test of time and remain unchallenged to this day.

Index of all poker odds tables


TABLE 3 – Five-card draw:
Basic one-card high drawing chances
(53-card deck – including Joker)

You’re drawing one card to…

Probability of making a complete hand expressed in percent (%) is…

Odds against making a complete hand are…

876Joker (22-way hand)

45.83

1.18 to 1

97♥ 6Joker (19-way hand)

39.58

1.53 to 1

654♦Joker or
6910♦ Joker or
J♠ 10♠ 9♠ 8♠ (16-way hands)

33.33

2 to 1

K♣ J♣ 10♣ 9♣ (13-way hand)

27.08

2.69 to 1

6♦ 53Joker (12-way Straight)

25.00

3 to 1

K♥ 8♥ 7♥ 4♥ (Flush)

20.83

3.8 to 1

9♦ 8♣ 7♠ 6♦ (Open-end Straight)

18.75

4.33 to 1

J♠ 10♠ 8♦ 7♦ (Inside Straight)

10.42

8.6 to 1

A♦ A♥ 7♣ 7♠ (Aces-up)

10.42

8.6 to 1

7♦ 74♠ 4♦(Small Two-Pair)*

8.33

11 to 1

A♦ A♥ A♠ 4♦ (Three Aces with kicker)*

10.42

8.6 to 1

8♣ 8♥ 8♠ A♦ (Trips with Ace kicker)*

10.42

8.6 to 1

5♦ 5♥ 5♣ K♣ (Trips with non-Ace kicker)*

8.33

11 to 1

* Four-of-a-kind counts as a complete hand

(Note: Mike Caro added category for trips with non-ace kicker to this table 2010-03-28. They are the same as improving when drawing to two small pair. Addition is only at new Poker1.com.)

Note: All tables in this series follow the same logical construction; however tables 1 through 4 are formatted slightly differently. This is an experimental application of the new Poker1 typography and may eventually be applied to the other tables.

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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.