By Mike Caro | Exit
NOTE: Click “Predict” tab above for information about the Mike Caro Brain Trust.
Here are the current odds from the Mike Caro Brain Trust:
Odds of President Barack Obama winning popular vote:
19% / 4.3-to-1 against (2012-11-05 at 11:45 p.m. Central Time)
Odds of President Barack Obama winning electoral vote:
31% / 2.2-to-1 against (2012-11-05 at 11:45 p.m. Central Time)
Over/under margin of victory (popular vote):
4.4% in favor of Mitt Romney (2012-11-05 at 11:45 p.m. Central Time)
Examination in brief
Most polls show the election about tied and Intrade.com odds have it 2-to-1 in favor of the president. However, our analysis doesn’t point in that same direction.
Mitt Romney is beginning to recover after stalling in his surge in popularity and support that began with the first presidential debate. The storm/hurricane Sandy that primarily hit New Jersey and New York (and affected parts of Connecticut, Delaware, and other states) took attention from Romney’s campaign and slowed his momentum. It also showcased President Obama as a leader in initial media coverage. However, Romney’s surge seems to have flared again as the election approaches its final hours.