Brain Trust: President — 2012 election eve odds

  • By Mike Caro | Exit
     

NOTE: Click “Predict” tab above for information about the Mike Caro Brain Trust.

2012-11-05

Here are the current odds from the Mike Caro Brain Trust:

Odds of President Barack Obama winning popular vote:

19% / 4.3-to-1 against
(2012-11-05 at 11:45 p.m. Central Time)

Odds of President Barack Obama winning electoral vote:

31% / 2.2-to-1 against 
(2012-11-05 at 11:45 p.m. Central Time)

Over/under margin of victory (popular vote):

4.4% in favor of Mitt Romney 
(2012-11-05 at 11:45 p.m. Central Time)

Examination in brief

Most polls show the election about tied and Intrade.com odds have it 2-to-1 in favor of the president. However, our analysis doesn’t point in that same direction.

Mitt Romney is beginning to recover after stalling in his surge in popularity and support that began with the first presidential debate. The storm/hurricane Sandy that primarily hit New Jersey and New York (and affected parts of Connecticut, Delaware, and other states) took attention from Romney’s campaign and slowed his momentum. It also showcased President Obama as a leader in initial media coverage. However, Romney’s surge seems to have flared again as the election approaches its final hours.

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Mike Caro

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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

6 thoughts on “Brain Trust: President — 2012 election eve odds”

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  1. If you were paying 4.3 to 1 on Obama to win the popular vote, I’m definately putting $ on Barry. I feel the results are way to close to pass up that kind of over lay.

    I am also taking Obama in the electoral college vote at 2.2 to 1 (assuming you are paying that). Again the over lay is just too fat to pass up.

    Your over/under line, is it margin of victory in popular vote or electoral vote? If I assume electoral vote (since that determines “victory”) I’d take the under based on these calculation methods:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin

    Popular vote is WAY tougher, but since I think it will be pretty close I’d go for the under and grit my teeth.

    1. The over/under applies to the popular vote. To make that clear, “(popular vote)” has been added to the heading. Thanks.

      By the way, I wouldn’t be making my only bet either way at the stated odds. If the odds are correct, then it’s fair money, either way. That means there would be no profit if the event and bet were repeated forever.

      However, if this site were offering those odds, I would definitely bet Obama, too. Then I’d go to others and bet Romeny at more favorable odds, doing what’s called in sports betting as “middling.”. — Mike Caro

  2. Thank you for this. I’m glad to see someone has retained their sanity.

    Whatshisname at the NYT has been upping his estimate and it now holds at around 92% for Obama to be re-elected. I think it’s ludicrous.

    Enthusiasm is on Romney’s side. I think he will end up with 300+ electoral votes after all is said and done.

    1. But keep in mind that Barack Obama might win. He has a reasonable chance. That wouldn’t make these odds wrong or the the “Whatshisname” odds right.
      If we could magically rerun elections with similar known facts in a million parallel universes, then the calculations with percentages closest to the multiple results would likely be superior.
      If Obama never won, then my Brain Trust odds would be terrible, because I over-estimated the likelihood of him winning. That’s an important concept in poker, too. — Mike Caro

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