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Computer simulation picks Seattle
in Super Bowl
CBS Philadelphia ↑
Mike Caro says:
Although I don’t talk about it often publicly, I’ve done a lot of work with computer simulations of football — both pro and college.
One thing I can say for certain is that if my simulation of 50,000 Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks Super Bowls showed Seattle with a three-point advantage, I wouldn’t be passing the results off to the media. I’d be screaming, “What the hell did I do wrong?” And I’d examine the code, the weightings of factors, and the premises to find the glitch.
Of course, these folks should have known there was something dramatically wrong with their program when it predicted a better than 50 percent chance that the Broncos and Seahawks would meet in the Super Bowl. Although that turns out to be what happened and was arguably the most likely match-up, it wasn’t nearly 50 percent likely.
So, where would I put the line? I’d say a fair spread would favor Denver by 4 to 5 points. At the extremes, there’s reasonable chance that the Broncos will win in a blowout and very little chance that Seattle will. — MC