MCU gambling tip: Your grandma lied

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Your grandma lied when she said you couldn’t win gambling. Somebody has to win gambling. Otherwise, where would the money go? Maybe it’s the casino that wins, or the bookie, or the guy next door — but somebody wins. Unless the odds already are in your favor, in the long run there is no way for you to win gambling unless your decisions really matter.

And that’s the first question we should ask ourselves. ”Do my decisions really matter?” Not matter after we know the outcome. Matter before we know the outcome. Was there a valid logical reason to choose red over black on that roulette wheel? Probably not. So, how are you going to win? Well, we’re probably not.

Nothing else possible

But in games like poker, gin rummy, sports betting, blackjack, and many more, your decisions really do matter. It matters whether you raise, call, or throw your hands away at poker. Because of this, in poker good players eventually beat bad players. Nothing else is possible.

In gambling, whenever your decisions matter, winning is always possible. It’s only a matter of whether your decisions matter enough. — MC

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Mike Caro

Twitter: FaceBook: Known as the "Mad Genius of Poker," Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority of poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full biography at

5 thoughts on “MCU gambling tip: Your grandma lied”

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  1. No, your decisions do not matter in Roulette. The odds are immutable and inflexible and exactly the same regardless of any overt act on your part. You can change the odds in Blackjack by card counting and wager sizing. Obviously slot machines are, like Roulette, of fixed odds and not influenced by any action you might make. Poker is the only “game” where your decisions cause the odds to change and those odds do change with every act, card and scenario at the table. That is why poker players play the game. Our decisions matter.

  2. Your decisions do matter in roulette. Slot machines have no decision making! Except for this one thing I think this post is very insightful.

    1. You missed one important part “It’s only a matter of whether your decisions matter enough”

  3. Im confused. Are you saying that after this strategy of eliminating numbers we should not bet on anything since all the numbers are eliminated thus not betting makes us break even…???

    or does the formula work out to mean we should only bet on the following numbers and we will breakeven?

    we should only bet on? these numbers exclude the Green bets, 11,12,13 and 14 and even black numbers and odd red numbers? so we only bet on:
    R32, B17, R34, B15, R36,B35, R16,B33, R18, B31, B28

    1. Hi, Garrett –

      I’m guessing you intended to post this under “Caro’s Roulette System #1″:

      If you follow the system, you end up betting no numbers, thus completely eliminating the house edge.

      The elaborate method of doing that represents my attempt at mathematical humor.

      Thanks for making your first comment and joining our Poker1 family.

      Straight Flushes,
      Mike Caro

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