I believe the media has overplayed this story. Yes, there’s a chance of a virus causing havoc in the United States — perhaps one created by an enemy, including terrorists. But Ebola isn’t it.
And hour after hour of news coverage seems to be taking what only merits a two sentence daily update and then talking about the same thing, using different phrasing, again and again. To me, this is sensationalism at its worst.
So, I thought some Brain Trust reality odds were in order.
Sure, there’s a chance this could become a more serious concern and perhaps the virus could mutate and be transmitted by air. But, right now, the chance of any American not leaving the country and not administering health care to Ebola patients is probably tens of millions to one against. And that’s the real story, one that doesn’t merit the continuous coverage at the expense of other news.
At this point, there have only been one or possibly two people in the United States that have been infected by the Ebola virus, brought here by a now-deceased victim who had Ebola upon arrival from Africa. The transmission was the result of close contact during health care.
It seems overwhelmingly likely that there will be 100 or fewer cases of Ebola in the United States by year’s end. And it’s probably going to be considerably below that. The Brain Trust odds for the number of deaths are entered at 6½, but may change up or down. Since 6½ doesn’t turn out to be a perfect 50/50 over/under number from a theoretical “betting” standard, there’s a slightly better chance that it will fall under than over. And there’s about a 19 percent chance that there won’t be any.
And, by the way, the outbreak of Ebola in Africa is a major concern, meriting significant news coverage. The threat in the United States isn’t. — MC
→ BRAIN TRUST
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Mike Caro says:
