Fast 2016-02-02: Sanders bettors got screwed

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Is Drudge reading Poker1? After I posted this, the DrudgeReport.com headline changed to “America on a coin toss”, mirroring what I wrote below. I know, that’s just a coincidence and the issue was already mentioned in a few places. But you never know, right?

It’s 9 a.m. Central time on February 2, 2016. And if you bet that Bernie Sanders would defeat Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses last night, you got screwed.

While there may still be some final results and adjustments to come, right now Sanders won 695 delegates to Clinton’s 694. The popular vote isn’t announced by the Democrat leadership that oversees the process, but it’s pretty likely that Sanders won that. Anyway, it seems as if this was a very close win for Sanders.

By the way, I didn’t favor either candidate, nor did I make any bets on the outcome.

But wait!

The media is announcing a “razor thin” victory for Clinton. Why? Because six of the delegates were chosen by coin flip after ties were declared. (There’s no secret ballot on the Democrat side of the caucuses, only head counts.) Guess what? Clinton won all six coin flips (63-to-1 against), pushing her total to 700 delegates so far to Sanders’ 695.

The real result looks like 695 to 694 with six ties — in favor of Sanders. As I said, results could still change, but if it ends like this and you bet Sanders, you have a right to grumble.

I heard one commentator say that even if Sanders had won half of the six coin flips, that would have only been a gain of three more delegates and he still would have lost? WTF? If Sanders had won three of six, his one-delegate lead would not have changed.

— MC | Follow-up link: → None

Also see:  → Why a Poker1 “Fast” category?  |  → All Poker1 “Fast” entries


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Mike Caro

Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/mikecaro FaceBook: http://www.facebook.com/caro.mike Known as the "Mad Genius of Poker," Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority of poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full biography at Poker1.com.

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