Poker odds 01: 5-draw + joker, hands pre-draw

Note: All odds tables at Poker1.com were personally calculated by Mike Caro, unless otherwise specified. Many were done in the early 1970s and included in the original Doyle Brunson Super/System — A Course in Power Poker, first published in 1978.

At the time of publication, there were few, if any, reliable sources for poker odds. The 50 often-cited tables stood the test of time and remain unchallenged to this day.

Index of all poker odds tables


TABLE 1 — Five-card draw:
Probability of being dealt specific hands before the draw
(53-card deck — including joker)

The probability of being dealt… (before the draw)

Expressed in percent (%) is…

The odds against it are…

Number of possible combos

5 ACES

0.00*

2,869,684 to 1

1

STRAIGHT-FLUSH

Royal Flush

Other Straight Flush

0.01

0.00**

0.01

14,066 to 1

119,569 to 1

15,942 to 1

204

24

180

FOUR-OF-A-KIND

0.03

3,465 to 1

828

FULL HOUSE

0.15

656 to 1

4,368

FLUSH

0.27

367 to 1

7,804

STRAIGHT

0.71

139 to 1

20,532

THREE-OF-A-KIND

3 Aces

Three-of-a-kind

(Large: K’s – 8’s)

Three-of-a-kind

(Small: 7’s – 2’s)

2.21

0.37

0.92

 

0.92

44.3 to 1

271 to 1

108 to 1

 

108 to 1

63,360

10,560

26,400

 

26,400

TWO-PAIR

Aces-up

K-up, Q-up, J-up

Small Two-Pair

(Tens-up and under)

4.83

1.10

1.69

2.03

19.7 to 1

89.6 to 1

58.0 to 1

48.2 to 1

138,600

31,680

48,600

58,320

ONE PAIR

42.34

1.36 to 1

1,215,024

PAIR OF A,K,Q,J (Openers)

Aces

Kings

Queens

Jacks

14.19

4.81

3.13

3.13

3.13

6.05 to 1

19.8 to 1

31.0 to 1

31.0 to 1

31.0 to 1

407,184

137,904

89,760

89,760

89,760

SHORTS

Shorts (Large: 10’s – 7’s)

Shorts (Small: 6’s – 2’s)

28.15

12.51

15.64

2.55 to 1

6.99 to 1

5.39 to 1

807,840

359,040

448,800

Note: All tables in this series follow the same logical construction; however tables 1 through 4 are formatted slightly differently. This is an experimental application of the new Poker1 typography and may eventually be applied to the other tables.

Published by

Mike Caro

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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

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