
Let's look at Table I and Table II.
Get used to those little black boxes. Although every culture, no matter how remote or
unstudied, recognizes the small solid-black box as a symbol for Universal Disease
Prevention, the nice folks at B & G Publishing are using it to indicate that the
data given applies to a certain hand or better. Table II, for instance,
shows that the odds against being dealt any Straight or better before the draw
(53-card deck, with Joker) are 84.1 to 1. The odds against getting exactly a
Straight, though, are shown on Table I
(139 to 1).
Table I also shows that you'll get a
Pat Royal Flush 24 times for every one time you'll be dealt 5-Aces pat. You can see a
big difference in the frequency you can expect a Straight and the frequency you can
expect a Flush. There's a big difference between how often you'll see a Flush and a
Full House, too, but the most startling comparison is between a Full House and
Four-of-a-kind.
You'll get a lone Pair of Openers once every 7 deals.
Table II shows that you'll receive a hand as good as Openers (Jacks-or-better)
22.4% of the time (about two out of nine hands). You'll get any Pair or better
slightly more than half the time. It's 21.3 to 1 against getting a hand as good as
Aces-up (the minimum raising standard for most pleasure players).
How you'll fare drawing one card is shown in Table III. You can expect to make
the best possible Come hand (22-way) 46% of the time. When you draw to a Flush, you'll
connect 21% of the time. The figures 10.42% and 8.6 to 1 occur four times on this table.
There's nothing wrong with our typographer. It's just that hitting an inside Straight,
making a Full House drawing to Aces-up, making at least a Full House drawing to 3-Aces
with a kicker, and ending up with a Full House or better drawing to Trips with an Ace
kicker all have the same probability.
If you're drawing down to Trips less than Aces (53-card deck), Table IV and
Table V list the odds against making Four-of-a-kind at 23 to 1 and the odds against
making a Full House or better at 8.64 to 1. About 90% of the time, you won't help.
With 3-Aces, you'll help more often. You'll make either 4-Aces or 5-Aces one out of
12 tries, and you'll make Aces-Full or better about once in seven tries.
Table VI and Table VII tell us that it's 96 to 1 against making a Full
House when you draw three to a Pair of Kings. It's 7 to 1 against making Trips or better,
and it's 5 to 2 against helping.
The next four tables, VIII, IX, X and XI, give the
breakdown on a very elaborate Draw Poker comparison. When the Joker is part of your hand,
decisions of this type can be difficult. If you hold A - Joker - K - 9 - 6 ,
should you draw two cards or three cards? Your chances of improving are better if you
draw two. Your chances of making 3-Aces or better are more favorable drawing three, but
only slightly. Your chances of beating a Pat hand are much better drawing two.
With Table XII and Table XIII, we're dealing with a 52-card deck (no
Joker). It's a lot harder to get a Pat Straight-Flush than it was with a 53-card deck.
It was 14,000 to 1 then, and it's 65,000 to 1 now. As you'd expect, it's quite a bit
harder to get Pat Straights and Flushes, but it's actually easier to be dealt a Pat
Full House. Whereas you got a Pair or better slightly more than half the time when
the Joker was included, you now get a Pair or better slightly less than half the
time.
Table XIV shows that if you draw one card to an Open-end Straight-Flush, your
best Come shot in Draw with the 52-card deck, you'll make at least a Straight 32% of the
time - not nearly as good as the best Come hand using a 53-card deck (including the
Joker). When you draw down to Trips, you'll improve 10.4% of the time, about the same as
with the Joker included, according to Table XV.
Tables XVI and XVII show what happens, using the standard 52-card deck,
when you draw three to a Pair. You'll help almost 29% of the time, not much different
from drawing to a Pair other than Aces with the Joker added.
Beginning with Table XVIII, we're dealing with Hold 'em. This first table tells
you that it's 220 to 1 against holding a Pair of Aces before the Flop. It's harder than
that, even, to hold King-Queen of the same suit (331 to 1). You will begin with suited
cards 23.5% of the time.
When you begin with Ace-King suited, Table XIX gives you an idea what sort of
Flops you can expect. Once every 20,000 times you will have a Royal Flush after the Flop.
It's more than 2 to 1 against an Ace or a King flopping. (Not shown: If you
begin with Ace-King and stay through seven cards there's a 49% chance of at
least one other Ace or King turning up.) When you begin with a Pair of Kings,
according to Table XX, two more Kings will flop (giving you 4-Kings), once in
about 400 times. You can expect any Flop that includes a King 12% of the time. What you
definitely do not want to see is a Flop consisting of one Ace and no King
- but that will happen 19% of the time. (Not shown: If you begin with two Queens,
at least one Ace or King, but no Queen, will flop 38% of the time.)
When you begin with an inferior hand like Q
- J (Pinochle), Table XXI, it's 100%
to 1 against you flopping a Straight. More than two out of three times the Flop will
not include a Queen or a Jack.
If you hold Aces and four parts of a Straight after the Flop, 41.4% of the time
you will not improve, according to Table XXII. Table XXIII shows what can
be expected if you hold four cards to a Flush with no Pair after the Flop. About 35% of
the time, you'll make the Flush.
Table XXIV tells you that in a 10-handed Hold 'em game, there's better than a 13%
chance that no one will hold an Ace before the Flop. If you're against nine
opponents and you hold Ace-Jack, there's better than one chance in four that no
other player holds an Ace. If you're in a 10-handed game with King-Queen, there's a
15.6% chance that no opponent has you high-carded. In a four-handed game, it's better
than even money that no one will be dealt an Ace before the Flop.
Table XXV provides you with basic facts about Hold 'em. It's 16 to 1
against holding a Pair before the Flop. It's 13 to 4 that you will not begin with suited
cards. You will hold one Ace or two Aces before the Flop 15% of the time. If you have
Trips after the Flop, you'll end up with a Full House or better about a third of the
time. If you begin with a Pair, it's 15 to 2 against another card of that kind
flopping. If you begin with a Pair and stay through Seven cards, 19% of the time you'll
see the third card of your kind turn-up.
Table XXVI deals with long shots. When you begin suited, it's 118 to 1 against
flopping a Flush. If you begin with 9-8 suited, it's about 5,000 to 1 against flopping
a Straight-Flush.
Now let's look at Seven-Stud. It's over 5,500 to 1 against having 3-Aces rolled up,
according to Table XXVII. It's 424 to 1 against having any Trips rolled
up. Here, when you see "Three Parts of Other Straight", that figure deals with any
Straight (other than a Straight-Flush), even 7-5-3. And "Three parts of a Straight-Flush"
includes 4 - 6 - 8 and 8 - 9 -
10 . It's almost 5 to 1 against having any Pair
on the first three cards.
Table XXVIII says that if you begin with 3-Aces, you can expect to make a Full
House less than one out of three times. (You can expect to improve 41% of the time.)
Beginning with 2-Aces, it's more than 12 to1 against finishing with a Full House. (You'll
improve 62% of the time.) When you start with 10
- J - Q ,
it's 66 to 1 against catching a Straight-Flush. (You'll make at least Two-Pair 55% of the
time.)
Table XXIX. When you have Two-Pair after four cards, it's 10 to 3 against
making a Full House. (You'll improve 24% of the time.) If you have
J - J
- Q - K
- 10 , it's more than 500 to 1 against making the
Straight-Flush. (Expect to improve 72% of the time.)
Your short-range improvement chances are given on Table XXX. If you have
three Pair after six cards, you're going to fill up 13% of the time. If you hold
two red Jacks and a possible Straight-Flush in Clubs, you'll only make 3-Jacks once in
46 times, since the J will give you a Flush.
Three top-notch Poker players questioned that statistic before it occurred to them that
the J did not make three Jacks. If
intelligent people can overlook something that obvious - dealing with just one card to
come - you can imagine why so many mistakes are published elsewhere dealing with much
more complex problems. If you have Trips and an Open-end Straight-Flush after six cards,
you'll make a Straight-Flush one out of 23 tries. (About 54% of the time, you'll
end up with at least a Straight.) Additionally, if you have three parts of a
Flush after four cards, you'll make a Flush 10.6% of the time. If you have three parts
of a Flush after five cards, you'll male a Flush 4.2% of the time.
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