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| | | Forum Newbie
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| Scenario: No limit Hold-em 2 players left after the flop. I have 12 outs to (surely) win the hand. Pot is 100. I am 1st to bet. I have about 46% chance of winning if I go to 5th street. I have about 26% chance of drawing winning card on 4th street. Is my correct bet $25 (bet 25 to win 100 on the next card) for the correct pot odds – I can’t assume my opponent will bet on 4th street? Is my correct bet $33 (bet 33 to win 133 on the next card – assuming my opponent will call my bet) for the correct pot odds – I can’t assume my opponent will bet on 4th street? Is my correct bet $50 (bet 50 to win 100 on the next card) for the correct pot odds – assuming play on both 4th & 5th street? Is my correct bet $100 (bet 100 to win 200 on the next card – assuming my opponent will call my bet) for the correct pot odds – assuming play on both 4th & 5th street? |
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| | | Supreme Being
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| | Poker is more than just math, so with the information given, this is hard to answer. To give the most correct answer we could, blinds, your table image (if you have one and they're paying attention), what you know of your opponent, the preflop play, the cards actually involved, etc would be extremely helpful. However, here is my strictly mathematical solution. I would be on the flop the right amount of money to give you good odds to see the turn card. If the turn doesn't help you, I would then bet the right amount to give you correct odds to see the river. For a $100 pot, you bet X and your opponent calls X. This is just like your opponent betting X into the $100 pot, leaving you contemplating a call of X dollars into a $(100+X) pot. You say you are 26% to hit on the turn (if I remember your post right now). This is approximately 3:1 against you. so (100+X):X needs to be 3:1 or more. So solve (100+X)/X=3 to get X=50. You should bet $50 if you want to break even in the long run, and less if you want to make money, and more if you want to lose money. Remember though that this doesn't take into account at all your chance of winning the hand with the bet, your chance of winning with a river bluff if you miss, how much more you can make if you hit, how this will affect your image and the amount you make in future hands, the chances your opponent will raise you here, etc.
"You have to put yourself in position to get lucky."
--Tom McEvoy |
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| | qanstaman: Thanks. That clears it up from a purely mathematical perspective. |
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| | | Supreme Being
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| Sorry but it doesn't  2 ways to win in poker, make and showdown the best hand, or make a bet that noone matches or raises. So a larger bet, may (may not) improve your expectation, by increasing fold equity. Finally consider the consequences of giving away your hand, if you take the idea of 'giving yourself right odds' ot it's logical conclusion! There's a value in deception, and a cost in giving your hand away. With as many as 12 outs to nuts, with (probably) some other less certain wins, most often larger bets would be justified. What you don't want is to give someone an easy call on flop (who can put you on a draw) and then raise you off on turn with any 2 cards. So 12 outs should look like you're protecting a made hand, most likely.
-- FToP says everytime you are outdrawn giving the wrong odds, you actually won something! If only the accountants at my Poker Site would agree. Money men think so short term... |
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| | | Supreme Being
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| robnotts (6/12/2006)
Sorry but it doesn't 2 ways to win in poker, make and showdown the best hand, or make a bet that noone matches or raises. So a larger bet, may (may not) improve your expectation, by increasing fold equity. Finally consider the consequences of giving away your hand, if you take the idea of 'giving yourself right odds' ot it's logical conclusion! There's a value in deception, and a cost in giving your hand away. With as many as 12 outs to nuts, with (probably) some other less certain wins, most often larger bets would be justified. What you don't want is to give someone an easy call on flop (who can put you on a draw) and then raise you off on turn with any 2 cards. So 12 outs should look like you're protecting a made hand, most likely. As I stated in my previous post, we can't give a correct answer without knowing lots more information. My answer is one from a purely mathematical standpoint without taking any human factors into account. The $50 bet is correct in that it gives you the proper odds to be in the hand. However, as you noted, it is likely the incorrect bet in an actual poker game against opponents. So my answer does clear things up from a purely mathematical perspective, while it is not in any way actual advice for the bet to make.
"You have to put yourself in position to get lucky."
--Tom McEvoy |
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| | | Supreme Being
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| | Wasn't criticising your post at all ganstaman, but I did disagree that any mathematical perspective is cleared up, when it does not consider the goal of maximising expectation. What is interesting about poker, is that even a 'mathematical player' needs to consider opponents, when plugging in numbers to make the optimal decisions.
-- FToP says everytime you are outdrawn giving the wrong odds, you actually won something! If only the accountants at my Poker Site would agree. Money men think so short term... |
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| | | Forum Member
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| | Screw Pot odds, people rely too much on them.. If you know you are beat then fold.. If you think you will win with the outs you ahve left then call if it doesn't totally ruin your stack.. if nothing comes then fold.. its that simple.. Be the agressor and then if you get raised it is safe to throw down a drawing hand.. Try not to waste too much money on pott odds they are the pro's way of suckering you in to call your money away IMO.. |
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| | | Supreme Being
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| jsagan77 (6/30/2006)
Screw Pot odds, people rely too much on them.. If you know you are beat then fold.. If you think you will win with the outs you ahve left then call if it doesn't totally ruin your stack.. if nothing comes then fold.. its that simple.. Be the agressor and then if you get raised it is safe to throw down a drawing hand.. Try not to waste too much money on pott odds they are the pro's way of suckering you in to call your money away IMO..Sorry, but you're throwing money away if you don't consider pot odds. It IS correct to call when beat if you have proper odds, but incorrect call when beat with improper odds. Yes, there are other factors to consider (how likely you can win with a bluff if you miss, etc), but you shouldn't ignore pot odds entirely. If a pro thinks his opponent is drawing, he will bet enough to give you improper odds to call. Then, calling would be incorrect, but this is because the pro understands pot odds.
"You have to put yourself in position to get lucky."
--Tom McEvoy |
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