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Home » Poker » Beyond Poker » When Martingale works

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When Martingale worksExpand / Collapse
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Posted 2/28/2006 8:59:31 PM
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Ok, I've been testing this out and it seems to work.

On the 3 card poker game over at 32 Red you can bet only on the "pairs plus" game, without betting on the actual hand.

I've been using a sort of Martingale system to play this. Now I know the Martingale system is crap for Roulette etc, but with the pairs plus game the payout is 1:1 for pairs, but goes up for better hands.

The maximum bet is £200 and you can start at 50, which means there's 9 bets inbetween. So long as you get at least a pair in those 9 bets you can't lose, but you can still win

I just won £350 when I got a straight on a £50 bet.

It does test the nerves a bit sticking £50 down after a losing streak, but winning a weeks wages certainly helps


Give it a try and see what you think! 32 Red Casino

3 card poker is in the "table games" section


Flash

Post #1668
Posted 3/1/2006 6:09:21 AM
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Ok, I've done a bit of statistics to back this up.

Would love to hear a more knowledgeable view on my workings, so here goes...

First of all the game, it's fairly simple. You are dealt 3 cards, if your hand is better than the dealers you win the Ante, plus you win a "pairs plus" bonus for any combination better than a pair. This bonus is as follows:

Straight Flush   40:1
3 of a kind       30:1
Straight           6:1
Flush               4:1
Pair                 1:1

Now, the stats part is:

52P3 = 132,600 possible permutations of 3 cards

There are 900 possible winning hands per card worked out as such, using the Ace of Spades (Asp) as an example:

Card 1             Card 2              Card 3
Asp                A other               other    = 150 possibilities
Asp                 other               A other   = 150 possibilities
A other             Asp                 other     = 150 possibilities
other                Asp                A other   =  150 possibilities
other              A other               Asp      =  150 possibilities
A other           other                  Asp      =  150 possibilities

That is "other" can be any one of 50 cards remaining in the pack, and A other can be any other of the 3 aces. So for each position of Asp there are 300 winning hands, and Asp can be in any of 3 positions.

Seeing as you can win from any pair of cards there are 900*52=46800 winning hands in the pack, meaning about 35% of draws will result in a winning hand (132600/46800=.353). So about 1 card in 3 will give you at least a pair, paying out at 1:1 (pretty good odds in casino terms anyway!)

Now, my strategy is to basically use the Martingale system on the pair plus bet. That is to double my bet after each loss. In this way, if you get a pair you win back everything you've bet plus the original stake on top, but if you get better than a pair, you win fairly big.

The way Martingale system normally falls down with games like Roulette is that you reach the house maximum before you win and can't continue doubling your bets.

The way the betting works at http://www.32red.com/?BTag=32RedBanAff4494"]32 Red is a maximum of 200 chips, and going up in the following increments .50, 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200. So that gives you 9 bets before you reach the maximum.

I realise each draw is an independent event, so there's still a chance of getting 9 losing bets on the trot and hitting the maximum, but there's also the chance of getting a better hand, and winning back big.


I work these out to be a
.1% chance of a straight flush paying 40:1 (3*52=152 possible hands)
1.9% chance of 3 of a kind paying 30:1  (5*52=260 ph)
2.3% chance of a staight paying 6:1 (6*52=312 ph)
8% chance of a flush (21*52=1092 ph)

Giving you a 12.3% chance of getting ahead.

So, to summarise, there's a 35% chance of winning, including a 12% chance of getting ahead, and you have 9 chances to win at least your stake back.

So far I've won £350 like this, but I haven't really got the guts to play for big money.

Try out the game at http://www.32red.com/?BTag=32RedBanAff4494"]32 Red

I would love to know anyone's suggestions as to my workings etc?

thanks
Flash

Post #1671
Posted 3/3/2006 11:42:32 PM
Supreme Being

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I don't believe in Martingale systems. I understand them. I understand the stats. I just don't trust the logic. I do wish you luck though.

pokerponcho
Post #1705
Posted 3/18/2006 8:55:45 PM


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When I originally posted about the martingale it was like a feeding frenzy for everybody to come out and try to discredit it.  I thought that was funny but lacked the energy to try to carry on an arguement with multiple people.

What's the idea situation to use this betting system?  When you have a gigantic bankroll, a low table minimum, and a very high table maximum.  Idealy it would be the best to have an unlimited source of funds and no table max, but, we, unfortunately, don't live in fantasy land.

You need to understand that by using this system you are taking calculated risks and if you do happen to go broke or hit the maximum and lose then you should probably walk away for the day.  Cut your losses. 

But the martingale works well with games that pay atleast 1:1 or higher.  Of course, the casinos do their best to keep you on the short end and even though the pay outs might be 1:1 the odds are most likely not.

Research your games and give it a shot.  It could end up being very profitable.

G O N E  F O R E V E R

Post #1779
Posted 3/20/2006 7:24:29 AM
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The Martingale style systems are broken because, that 'gigantic bankroll' costs money, even if it's only an opportunity cost for greater returns invested elsewhere, or a game like Poker at a table where you have an edge.

The risk reward ratio is wrong, for small 'gauranteed' profits, you actually risk going bust eventually, when the unlikely (but inevitable eventually) run occurs.

--

 FToP says everytime you are outdrawn giving the wrong odds, you actually won something!

If only the accountants at my Poker Site would agree.  Money men think so short term...

Post #1784
Posted 3/21/2006 1:12:42 PM


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I think what most people don't realise is that when sitting down for a session of gambling, you should not bring every penny you have to your name.  I suggest taking only a very minute portion of your total bankroll.  Something around 10%. 

If you lose your money.  You get up and leave.  Could you bust yourself 10 times in a row and eat up your whole entire bankroll?  Yes.  But what are the odds of this actually happening?  I don't know.  I've never had it happen.  It is definately possible.  Just like 00 hitting on a roulette wheel 10 times in a row.  It's possible....

G O N E  F O R E V E R

Post #1796
Posted 3/22/2006 7:06:01 AM
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It does happen even to great poker players, Stu Ungar for instance.  Jennifer Harman went broke a few times, and even our very own fulldeck/Poker1.com seems to have experienced it!

--

 FToP says everytime you are outdrawn giving the wrong odds, you actually won something!

If only the accountants at my Poker Site would agree.  Money men think so short term...

Post #1799
Posted 3/26/2006 11:03:22 AM


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The martingale doesn't really apply to standard poker.

Stu went broke because he was addicted to gambling on horses and sports not to mention the drugs and women.

G O N E  F O R E V E R

Post #1817
Posted 3/27/2006 3:49:37 AM
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Della's book, suggests he was prone to tilt to in cash games, one example was a FL game where he blew off whole bankroll for the game in one evening, playing like a maniac.  Additionally I've seen Doyle say 'Stu was the biggest steamer' on TV.

Just as you say though, the biggest leaks were in side-action.  One example was after winning a heads up, he got tricked into proposition betting his winnings off, playing coin throwing against a wall.  Which meant his wily casino  managing opponent was effectively free-rolling on him (or getting a free poker lesson depending on how you look at it).

--

 FToP says everytime you are outdrawn giving the wrong odds, you actually won something!

If only the accountants at my Poker Site would agree.  Money men think so short term...