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| | I have to agree with fulldeck. Not that you're all a bunch of idiots, but rather that it was a total bluff. KGB put Mike on a draw which is why he says at the end, "That ace could not have helped you." If he had any kind of a hand, since he was last to act, he would have just checked it to win. The only way he would get called in that situation is if he was beat, so there was no reason to make that last bet unless he was bluffing and didn't want to show it down in case Mike had a small pair with his draw. I suppose you could make the arguement that he had pocket aces and was just rubbing what he that was the win in Mike's face, but I think he's too smart a player for that. |
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| It can't be a bluff because Teddy KGB, if you watch very closely, is delighted by the call until he sees the nuts. This means he has a hand that is very near the nuts. So he must have at least a set because he was still confident even after he saw the call. But maybe I'm over analyzing. After all, it is just a movie.
pokerponcho |
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Supreme Being
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| | Nope. That's true. He freaks only after seeing Mike's hand. Maybe we were meant to never know for sure. Maybe they never wrote what KGB held in the first place... Who knows. It would seem to make perfect sense that he held aces though... G O N E F O R E V E R |
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| I don't know about the AA. I'd say it's more likely he flopped a very strong hand, not AA. Delighted by the call of the overbet makes it not AA, because such a big call screams out Mike is strong. He more likely has two tens in the hole, and plays like he's bluffing at the pot on the flop, like Mike did in the beginning of the movie. He likes the call because it makes it seem to him like Mike has a set of 7s, or less likely 10 7 two pair. He slow's down on the turn (bet of half the pot) because he is fishing for a call from a worse hand and doesn't want Mike to realize he's drawing to 1 out, and Mike calling on the turn would likely commit him to call the all in on the river. He could think Mike has a high pair in the hole, but Mike might try to find out where he was in the hand earlier on. The comment on the end is another cast for the calling fish, like Scotty Nguyen during the final hand of the 98 WSOP main event. KGB had been needling Mike the whole night, and that was the bait to make Mike jump up and show KGB that he had a good one, giving KGB all his chips.
I will learn, and I will improve, and eventually, I will win. |
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| I don't think it was aces. If KGB had pocket aces, he would have re raised pre flop especailly down 2-1 on chips. Rather than slow play pre flop and then over bet on the flop with three connectable cards. And A 10 OS, wouldn't have been as big a hand on the flop either. the only hand he'd a pushed out with the 2k bet into a 400 dollar pot is some thing he had beat. he gets called there only by some thing that has him beat.
I think he had a hand like 6-6, 7-7, or maybe 10-10. But probably not 10-10. Casue he'd probably re raise with that two. Thats a big hand pre flop, and down chips you take a shot there for sure. But a hand like 6-6 or 7-7, he could call about 2 times the BB, and not re raised. And then on the flop, put in a big, big bet. Cause then he's betting into mike, the pre flop agressor. Theres a good chance mike has two over cards, and thinks KGB is just pushing him. he could call, thinking kgb was just pushing him. Of course we know he actually floped the straight. but whe Mike had been playing tight all game (KGBs comments on being trapped with all checks) he wouldn't have put him on a suited connector on the flop. And for the comment on the ace, well we know KGB was more than willing the needle mike into playing the secodn freeze out. So if he put mike on over cards, trying to say that ace didn't help you to get mike to call a KGB all in with what would be the top board pair is not below him. And Mike, if he had paired the ace with a high kicker could call all in thinking he was good.
Like mike, in the first hand we see with KGB, he over bets to try and make mike think he's just on a steal, with a big hand only to get beaten by the nuts.
And of course KGBs floped trips get broken by mikes str8.
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| | | Supreme Being
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| You probably thought this thread was over with, but....
[quote]Gone Forever (2/27/2006)
Nope. That's true. He freaks only after seeing Mike's hand.
Maybe we were meant to never know for sure. Maybe they never wrote what KGB held in the first place... Who knows. It would seem to make perfect sense that he held aces though...
G O N E F O R E V E R[/quote]
Here's what I could find of the action at the end:
Teddy KGB: That ace could not have helped you.
[drops all of his chips onto the table]
Teddy KGB: I bet it all.
Mike McDermott: [laughs] You're right Teddy, the ace didn't help.
[pushes chips towards the center and flops down his cards]
Mike McDermott: I flopped a nut straight.
From what I remember seeing, Teddy is happy when Mike says that the ace didn't help him, but then Teddy freaks out when Mike simultaneously calls and announces the nuts.
While watching the hand the most recent time I saw the movie, it looked like a bluff to me. I know it's a movie and they do some pretty bad poker acting, but if I were at that table I would have called Teddy with a marginal hand at the end. Now I only have to compare it to his first hand and see if I'm way off or not.
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| | I've been debating this with friends for years. Here's everything I've gathered thus far (A LOT of info. I have too much spare time.): After the hand, KGB said something like "This guy, he check, check, check all night! He trapped me!" I highly doubt he'd say that if he was bluffing all the way. So rule that out right now. KGB's play-by-play: Preflop: KGB calls $100 into a $300 pot, 3-to-1 odds. It's kind of hard for me to believe he would just call this low bet with AA. Seriously, how do you not reraise when someone makes such a small preflop bet? Flop: Bets 2K, WAY overbetting the pot. Okay, maybe the flop did not help him. He might just be trying to scare Mike out of the hand. Turn: Pot-sized bet. From overbetting to giving 2-to-1 odds. Now I'm VERY suspicious. My guess is he has a 10 because it's top pair on the flop, yet still vulnerable with the straight draw visible. But we got a rag turn. His confidence in his top pair has skyrocketed because there's no chance for a flush and little straight chances. So he's not afraid to see a river because he's sure it won't hurt him. So he offers Mike good odds and sweetens the pot. River: He goes all in for his remaining $13,400 (assuming he started the hand with exactly 20K). That gives Mike about 2-to-1 odds again. "The ace couldn't have helped you." [subconscious thought: Because I have an ace in my hand, and my top two pair is good enough since you've made a weak bet preflop and checked all the way down. How could you possibly beat me?] My final guess is he had AT suited. If I were KGB, I'd look at Mike's play like this: -A weak preflop bet. He's got something halfway decent. My ATs is probably better, but just call since it may not be that much better... -Checking with a straight draw visible. Let's not take any chances here for him to hit. Let's overbet and offer him terrible odds so he won't even think about calling if he's on the draw. In fact, this might make him think I have 98 or I'm chasing. Just hope the ten holds up... -Oh, he called. So he DID hit a piece of the flop. He's not so stupid as to call my bet on a draw, so he can't have either 8 or 9. I won't rule out pocket 6s or 7s. Pocket 10s, too unlikely, I have one and the board has one. Maybe A6s, A7s or ten, high kicker? I rule out two pair because if he does have two pair, T7s would be the best two pair possible for him to have. He sure as hell won't raise preflop with those crappy cards... -A rag for a turn. Good. My top pair stays strong. Checks again. A weak preflop raise and two checks. Maybe he does have A6s, A7s, or T-high kicker. I rule out pocket 6s and 7s since he checked, although he could be slowplaying, but by checking here, it just seems like over-slowplaying. He knows not to be slowplaying like crazy, especially when the board shows a straight draw. I will offer him 2-to-1... -Ahh, the ace. Perfect. Top two pair. No chance he has a straight now. My final guess is for him to have A6 or A7. I just know my top two pair is worth the all-in... |
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| Assumption #1 - KGB is not an idiot and would not overvalue top pair (even heads up)
Assumption #2 - KGB is not an idiot and would have seen the obvious straight off of suited connectors.
Assumption #3 - KGB is not an idiot and could lay down pocket aces.
Preflop
KGBs call could be (1) a trap or (2) a drawing hand
No reraise from KGB might indicate a trap since the first hand of Rounders he was attempting to trap Mike with aces.
Mike's small raise could be indicative of any number of things. KGBs failure to re-raise to define his hand is either a monster or a drawing hand.
My initial thought - 70% big pair, 30% drawing hand.
Flop
Okay, normally Mike's check here could be a mess of things - he missed, he hit strong, he is drawing. No information. He was the preflop raiser but now checks to KGBs call. KGBs call indicates weakness - why didn't Mike take another shot? A small continuation bet would have been normal and not at all suspect. I think his check here is super suspicious.
KGB raises 5x the pot. I suspect he hit this flop hard. Here's why
Let's speculate that KGB had pocket tens and just tripped. Most players will slow play trips on the flop and KGB knows that Mike knows that. KGB needs to raise. A 5x overbet would be odd. Mike would have to think (1) this is a steal or (2) he has a small piece of this flop.
Now Mike's call here has to be crazy scary. Mike is no fish. He has no odds to call - none - if he was on a straight draw. Given that KGB has has trip tens (my postulate), Mike either has two pair, smaller trips, or the straight.
Let's look at each of those - Mike has a straight. An average player would slow play the straight. Mike knows that. Mike knows KGB knows that. Since Mike calls he is communicating clearly "I have a made hand." But (thinks KGB) why would a good player clearly communicate that he has a good hand unless he doesn't.
Other possibilities (from KGBs view) - smaller trips or two pair. Both of these are money hands. If two pair, Mike loses. If lower trips, Mike loses (to 1 out).
I think KGB is fairly certain that Mike does not have the straight and is either on two pair or lower trips, looking to trap him (KGB).
Flop summary - KGB trip tens, Mike nut straight
Turn
At this point, KGB thinks that Mike thinks he is trapping KGB. KGB is also trying to get his remaining $17,800 in the pot with his top trips. This needs to come in two chunks. The pot is $4,400. A pot sized bet leaves him with $13,400 to put in on the river.
Mike on the other hand does not need to re-raise as KGB is betting his hand for him.
River
"The ace could not have helped you."
Here's the thing. Beware the speech. KGB thinks he has a monster. Even if Mike hit the ace, which is unlikely given the betting patterns, KGB has second trips. Mike has sold that he does not have a straight but has enough of a hand to play with. KGB has built a big pot representing a big hand. This seems inconsistent with top pair/ace kicker or an over pair.
The final raise is pot sized, very normal, definitely not designed to push Mike out. Not a bluff - Mike has communicated that he is willing to play this hand, is not on a draw (by calling the over bet on the flop), and KGB is not the type of idiot to risk all his money on a bluff.
It's easy to critique KGB but I suspect everyone of you would lose your stack heads up if you had top trips (at turn) to two hands that could beat you (AA or 98).
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Veni. Fustro. Lucro. - Preacher
(I came. I bluffed. I win.)
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