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Mike Caro
Brain Trust
True
odds regarding World Series of Poker main event
Odds of 50-to-1
against superstar players in fields approaching
5,000 are flattering, but way off the mark
The odds in the table
below were presented
before the 2005 World Series of Poker main event
took place. A record 5,619 players competed,
paying $10,000 each to enter. It was the first
major-tournament prize pool exceeding
$50,000,000.
At the time of this Brain
Trust assessment, more than 7,000 players were
predicted by industry experts -- and we based
our odds on a rough guess of 7,500. With the
actual number now known, we make the odds
retrospectively...
1,324-to 1 against the best player winning.
"A
reduced field averages slightly more strength"
This revision gives mild
consideration to the probability that a
reduced field averages slightly more strength
that a larger field. That assumption
is based on the notion that stronger players
will enter in disproportionately large numbers
in smaller fields, and as more players enter
they are apt to be weaker, on average.
Here are the original
odds and comment based on the 7,500 entrant
assumption ...
|
Event |
Odds against |
Comment |
|
Best player wins the main event |
1,639
to
1 |
With more than 7,000
contestants predicted to pay $10,000
each to participate, you can expect a
large number of players with little
high-level tournament experience. If all
players were equally skilled,
the chances would be about one in, say,
7,500 (or whatever the size of the
field) of any individual player winning.
We think the best player (meaning, for
practical purposes, any of the
top competitors who have similar
chances) has about three times as good a
chance of winning in most tournaments
as his or her "fair share" would
suggest. In this event, we think "the
best player" has an even better chance.
But if anybody is willing to accept just
1,000-to-1 or less against them
winning (including me), you should lay
it, if you can afford to. Nobody has
that good of a chance. -- Mike
Caro |
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