Poker odds 02: 5-draw + joker, hands or better pre-draw

Note: All odds tables at Poker1.com were personally calculated by Mike Caro, unless otherwise specified. Many were done in the early 1970s and included in the original Doyle Brunson Super/System — A Course in Power Poker, first published in 1978.

At the time of publication, there were few, if any, reliable sources for poker odds. The 50 often-cited tables stood the test of time and remain unchallenged to this day.

Index of all poker odds tables


TABLE 2 — Five-card draw:
Probability of being dealt specific hands OR BETTER before the draw
(53-card deck – including joker)

The probability of being dealt… (before the draw)

Expressed in percent (%) is…

The odds against it are…

Number of possible combos

5 ACES

0.00*

2,869,684 to 1

1

STRAIGHT-FLUSH

Royal Flush

Other Straight-Flush

0.01

0.00**

0.01

13,997 to 1

114,786 to 1

13,997 to 1

205

25

205

FOUR-OF-A-KIND

0.04

2,777 to 1

1,033

FULL HOUSE

0.19

530 to 1

5,401

FLUSH

0.46

216 to 1

13,205

STRAIGHT

1.18

84.1 to 1

33,737

THREE-OF-A-KIND

3 Aces

Three-of-a-kind

(Large: K’s – 8’s)

Three-of-a-kind

(Small: 7’s – 2’s)

3.38

1.54

2.46

 

3.38

28.6 to 1

63.8 to 1

39.6 to 1

 

28.6 to 1

97,097

44,297

70,697

 

97,097

TWO-PAIR

Aces-up

K-up, Q-up, J-up

Small Two-Pair

(Tens-up and under)

8.21

4.49

6.18

8.21

11.2 to 1

21.3 to 1

15.2 to 1

11.2 to 1

235, 697

128,777

177,377

235,697

ONE PAIR

50.55

0.98 to 1

1,450,721

PAIR OF A,K,Q,J (Openers)

Aces

Kings

Queens

Jacks

22.40

13.02

16.15

19.27

22.40

3.46 to 1

6.68 to 1

5.19 to 1

4.19 to 1

3.46 to 1

642,881

373,601

463,361

553,121

642,881

SHORTS

Shorts (Large: 10’s – 7’s)

Shorts (Small: 6’s – 2’s)

50.55

34.91

50.55

0.98 to 1

1.86 to 1

0.98 to 1

1,450,721

1,001,921

1,450,721

* Actually 0.000035%                   ** Actually 0.000871%

Note: All tables in this series follow the same logical construction; however tables 1 through 4 are formatted slightly differently. This is an experimental application of the new Poker1 typography and may eventually be applied to the other tables.

Published by

Mike Caro

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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

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