Brain Trust: Hillary president chances 2016

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Wednesday → 

January

1

2013

Updated

Odds of Hillary Clinton being elected
United States president in 2016
and of being nominated

Odds:

17% chance of winning presidential election
(About 6-to-1 against)

51% chance of winning Democrat party nomination
(A bit better than even money)


Mike Caro says:

Although Clinton has momentum toward the Democrat party nomination, if she decides to run, many obstacles stand in her way. My impression is that she doesn’t tend to meet expectations when closely examined. She doesn’t own a magnetic personality to match the hype. She isn’t an outstanding speaker, either.

She’s intelligent and cunning. And most likely the dominant media will back her this time, having deserted her for Barack Obama in 2008. And that support can garner even higher degrees of favorable attention.

Her problem is that excessive favorable attention can work against you in an arena where no part of the true person is likely to remain hidden from the public. When what is hyped doesn’t mesh with what people see, there can be a quiet backlash. I think this is likely to happen, especially during the general election between just two major candidates.

Still, Clinton has the best chance of any single candidate, Democrat or Republican, of becoming president at this point. — MC

Published by

Mike Caro

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Known as the “Mad Genius of Poker,” Mike Caro is generally regarded as today's foremost authority on poker strategy, psychology, and statistics. He is the founder of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy (MCU). See full bio → HERE.

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